Podnebne spremembe in dejavniki notranjih migracij v Srbiji

Climate Change and Internal Migration Drivers in Serbia

Author(s):

Milica Maričić, Petar Vasić, Tijana Jakovljević, Damjan Bakić, Vera Gligorijević

Abstract:

Over the last decades, environmental and climate change have had increasingly profound implications for human mobility and migration, further intensified by economic crises, social disparities, and recent geopolitical conflicts. A deeper understanding of the interconnections between migration, climate change, and socioeconomic dynamics is essential for designing and implementing effective, sustainable development policies. This study presents a district-level case study of the Republic of Serbia, examining the impact of several structural and contextual drivers of internal outmigration over the period 2000–2024. The impacts of four factors on the Emigration rate have been observed: Labour market, Climate factors, Tourism, and Agriculture. The results indicate that in this country-specific study, emigration increases with stronger labour market dynamics and higher tourist activity. At the same time, more favourable climate conditions and a greater share of agricultural land in use are associated with lower emigration rates across districts. The proposed model, with a satisfactory fit and predictive power, provides insights and a longitudinal overview of how economic and environmental factors affect the emigration rate in a developing country.

Keywords:

emigration rate, climigration, environment, conceptual model, Serbia

DOI: 10.15292/geodetski-vestnik.2026.03.369-390

Citation:

Milica Maričić, Petar Vasić, Tijana Jakovljević, Damjan Bakić, Vera Gligorijević (2026). Podnebne spremembe in dejavniki notranjih migracij v Srbiji. | Climate Change and Internal Migration Drivers in Serbia. Geodetski vestnik, 70 (3), 369-390. DOI: 10.15292/geodetski-vestnik.2026.03.369-390